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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.